Digia’s AI forecast for the winner of the Finnish Elite League ice hockey championship updated: Tappara rises to victory

Digia published in November an AI-based forecast of the winner of ice hockey championship.

In the original forecast, the top four were Ilves, Tappara, Pelicans, and HIFK. Now AI raises Tappara to number one. Pelicans continue their furious rise and reach second place. TPS drops Ilves to fourth place, which AI still predicted as the champion in November.

At least Lukko and JYP supporters will hope for the fallibility of AI. Fans from Rauma will be annoyed by the AI forecast, according to which Lukko drops in the final results from 5th place to 8th place. Also, JYP is expected to have a cold ride according to AI: a drop from 7th place to 11th place.

What causes the changes in the forecast?

“The AI forecast is based on mathematical modeling, where last year’s games have been ‘played’ again with the current line-ups of the teams. The model always looks back a year, so it is supplemented with the data of the latest matches and correspondingly the oldest games drop out of the calculation. So the changes in the forecast are explained by changes in the data,” says Digia’s AI Director Juhana Juppo.

“Overall, in the AI forecast, the point differences in the Liiga narrow and the margins decrease. This leads to surprising results even in the play-off phase,” says Juppo.

How does the Pelicans’ goalkeeper change affect the forecast?
One of the biggest surprises in both the AI forecast and the results of the regular season so far is the tremendous success of the Lahti team Pelicans. AI predicted a bronze medal for Pelicans in November, even though the team was only 12th in the league table at the time. In recent weeks, Pelicans have risen to 9th place in the league table. AI spurs Pelicans to silver in the new forecast.

Earlier this week, immediately after the latest modeling, it was reported that Pelicans’ goalkeeper Jussi Olkinuora is leaving the team. How does the change affect the forecasts?

“When games are played with a new line-up and data starts to accumulate, we see the impact of the change on real results and the forecast. In human thinking, the impact of individual events is often greater than it actually is. The AI model takes into account dozens of variables, which balances the impact of individual factors on the forecast - even though the performance of the goalkeeper is very important,” says Juhana Juppo.
So sometimes even a single factor can have a big impact on the results. AI is strong in identifying such influential factors.

“The common challenge for business decision-makers and sports coaches is to understand what affects the most when results are to be developed in some direction. Such an impact analysis helps in predicting and improving the results of operations,” Juppo describes.

Ice hockey expert Petteri Sihvonen challenges AI views
Digia’s AI Director Juhana Juppo and MTV Sports expert Petteri Sihvonen met in November on MTV3’s program Viiden jälkeen, where Petteri Sihvonen presented his own forecasts challenging AI. Now Sihvonen has updated his own forecasts, like AI.

Petteri Sihvonen comments on the AI forecast in the video and presents his own views (in Finnish) >>

How does AI fare when one of the toughest ice hockey experts is against it?

“The machine has almost unlimited computing power on its side, and it can take into account significantly larger amounts of factors and their relationships at once than a human. But AI also has its challenges, which often relate to the data it has been trained on,” says Juhana Juppo.

With the SM-Liiga forecast, Digia’s intention is to highlight the possibilities of utilizing AI.

“There is a lot of hype and misconceptions about AI right now, even though in reality it is an everyday tool just like other technologies. It’s just a matter of understanding where it is most beneficial, and where some other tool helps more. Understanding the strengths and limitations of AI is the key to its effective use,” says Juhana Juppo.

The monthly updated forecast can be viewed on Digia’s website (in Finnish).

For more information:
Juhana Juppo
Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Digia
Tel. 040 172 2859
juhana.juppo(a)digia.com